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Housing prices show no signs of stopping while demand continues to cool

The following analysis of the Fredericksburg, Virginia area housing market has been prepared by the Fredericksburg Area Association of REALTORS® based on analysis of brightMLS multiple listing data. REALTOR® means member of the National Association of REALTORS®.

Local Realtors® are feeling the change in the market, but prices do not show any signs of cooling as we head into the fall months. Prices remain high and continue to climb despite moderating sales volumes.  Many Realtors® report significant price reductions from original list prices, but that has yet to translate
into reduced median price points. The Fredericksburg regional market saw an 11% year-over-year increase in median price, coming in at $425,000 this October compared to $384,677 last October.

While prices keep rising, units sold posted another large decrease with a more than 30% decline from 736 homes sold last October to 506 homes sold this year. That translated into a 21% decline in total sold dollar volume from nearly $305 million in sales last October compared to just over $240 million in sales this year.

FAAR Board of Director Clay Murray comments, “As our strong local market processes the external factors at play, including the recent elections and rising interest rates, we continue to see home values remain solid. Temporarily in this calmer market, more balance and accommodations within the contract are
prevalent between buyers and sellers. This is a welcome shift from the past two years. Buyers now are having to make the choice between a wait-and-see approach for when rates come down or act now to enjoy a more balanced market while they can.”

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, increased another 44% this October, coming in at 26 days versus just 18 last year. However, even these large percentage increases are adding just one or two days to the average and are still slightly below the historical 5-year average of 30 days.

Active listings continue to increase, jumping nearly 30% over last year with 1,012 homes on the market at the end of October 2022 versus 784 last year. New listings were down again this month, with 638 new homes coming on the market compared to 802 last October. New pendings remain down with 470 new contracts ratified in October compared to 772 last year, representing a nearly 40% year-over-year decline. Even though demand is dropping quickly, the number of available homes remains low, especially in the under $400,000 price bracket, creating competitive situations that could continue to buoy prices despite falling demand.

11 14 2022 October Market Statistics.pdf

FAAR 2022-Q3 Housing-Market-Report.pdf

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