Is the local real estate market turning a corner?
The following analysis of the Fredericksburg area housing market has been prepared by the Fredericksburg Area Association of REALTORS® based on analysis of brightMLS multiple listing data.
Could the region finally see a stop to ever increasing home prices? April statistics show that it’s possible the tide is turning and that prices will finally cool after months of plummeting demand and high interest rates. April of 2023 saw prices dip across the region for the first time since March of 2019. The median sold price settled at $435,000 this month compared to $440,000 in April of 2022, representing a small 1% year-over-year decline. Units sold were also way down, coming in at 414 compared to 731 units sold last April, a more than 43% reduction. Those factors compounded to turn a nearly 42% decrease in total sold dollar volume with nearly $339 million in sales in April of 2022 compared to $198 million this year.
While April’s regional price reduction is incredibly small at just 1%, it is notable considering how sticky price increases have remained in the face of falling demand. However, the decreases were not evenly distributed across all jurisdictions. Caroline, Spotsylvania, and Orange counties actually saw year-overyear price increases while King George County remained flat. Stafford County, the City of Fredericksburg, and Colonial Beach experienced price decreases from last year. The City saw a 3% decline with Stafford and Colonial Beach both seeing 2% declines. While prices might have come off a little bit, they are still very high with Stafford’s median price close to $490,000, the City just shy of $450,000 and Colonial Beach at $280,000.
FAAR Board of Director Gary Gardiner comments, “Overall the market continues to shift. Buyers active in the market are seeing less competition with the reduced demand and can take advantage by negotiating more contingencies. Sellers are seeing increased days on market, but prices remain high and sellers continue to command list price offers.”
Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, increased 93% up to 27 days this April compared to just 14 days last year. Inventory was also down slightly in April, finishing out the month with 717 active listings compared to 727 last year. New listings were down 39% from last year with 1,057 homes coming on the market in April of
2022 compared to 646 this past month. New pending sales were down 20% in April, with 615 pending contracts compared to 773 last April.